COP29: Reflections and outlook on the next conference in Brazil

12 December 2024

Anderson Zuo, Senior Analyst, and Elizabeth Andrews, Client Success Manager

The 29th Conference of the Parties (“COP29”), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, marked another pivotal moment in global climate diplomacy. This summit was seen as an opportunity to push for stronger commitments to limit global warming to 1.5°C. While notable advancements in climate financing were achieved, COP29 was also fraught with challenges and familiar divisions, showcasing the complexity of coming to a fair and effective global response to climate change.

Inadequate Nationally Determined Contributions (“NDCs”)

Despite the urgency, the revised NDCs (emissions reduction measures) submitted at COP29 fell short of the ambition required to limit warming to 1.5°C. Many countries maintained inadequate commitments, citing economic pressures and energy security concerns. Critics argued that these excuses undermine collective efforts, leaving the world on track for a catastrophic 3°C warming scenario (Earth Negotiations Bulletin, 2024).

Missing “fossil fuel” language

One of the most contentious debates revolved around the absence of explicit language targeting fossil fuel phase-outs in the final text. This omission, attributed to pressure from major fossil fuel-producing nations, sparked backlash from climate activists and vulnerable nations, who see it as a betrayal of the Paris Agreement’s spirit.

Inclusivity lacking after all

The principle of a “just transition” was a major talking point, but disagreements arose over its interpretation, and it saw little progress. Indigenous groups and youth activists condemned the “unethical methods and outcomes” of this COP and highlighted the lack of inclusivity in decision-making processes, calling for greater representation and ambition.

Despite these shortfalls of COP29, the summit did host some significant milestones reached by negotiators.

Financing climate action

A defining breakthrough of COP29 was the announcement of the Baku Finance Goal (“BFG”), a commitment to:

Triple finance to developing countries, from the previous goal of USD 100 billion to 300 billion annually by 2035;
Secure efforts of all actors to scale up finance to developing countries to the amount of USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035 (United Nations Climate Change, 2024).

Under the BFG, these funds will focus on the most vulnerable nations, including least-developed countries and small island developing states. Despite concerns over the pledged amount and that major developing emitters such as China and the Gulf countries are not obligated, this landmark agreement significantly surpasses the previous goal and marks a step towards bridging the finance gap (CarbonBrief, 2024).

Unlocking international carbon markets

COP29 also saw significant progress in achieving full operationalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon markets. With an agreement on guidelines to strengthen their integrity and effectiveness, these updated rules aim to ensure that carbon credit represents genuine, measurable, and verified emissions reductions or removals, providing the foundation for global climate investment (COP29 Baku Azerbaijian, 2024).

All eyes on brazil

Brazil’s role as the host of COP30 presents a unique opportunity to advance global climate goals. The country’s renewed commitments to combating deforestation and its deep histories in indigenous rights and biodiversity position it as a key player in the fight against climate change.

“The state of Pará and the city of Belém are eager to receive everyone and working hard to organise a beautiful conference – to show that the Amazon is prepared to receive the whole world, and to advance sustainable development that favors the region,” said the governor (Green Economics Institute, 2024).

As the world looks forward to COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the urgency to close the ambition gap in NDCs cannot be overstated. Countries must strengthen their commitments to align with scientific pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C; achieving this will require a collective push.

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